Fourth of July beach forecast: What's the weather for Daytona Beach, Volusia, Flagler? (2024)

With the big July 4th holiday falling on a Thursday, the stage is set for a long holiday weekend at the World’s Most Famous Beach.

Is the weather going to cooperate? What’s the chance of those nasty afternoon storms that have started to descend like clockwork nearly every afternoon?

Here’s the latest forecast for Volusia-Flagler from the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

After more storms on Monday, heat will be the biggest issue

According to a NWS hazardous weather outlook issued on Monday, widely scattered lightning storms are forecast to develop again Monday afternoon and into the evening. The primary threats will be gusty winds up to 45 mph, frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy rain leading to minor flooding of poorly drained and urban areas.

The outlook also calls for high temperatures in the lower to mid-90s and seasonably high humidity early this week that will send heat index readings to a range from 100-106. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to continue through the holiday weekend.

Although the extended forecast calls for rain chances that range from 40-50%, including a 40% chance of daytime showers on Thursday’s Independence Day holiday, the probability of showers could be a bit lower, said Scott Kelly, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

“On Thursday and into the weekend, the primary concern will be heat,” Kelly said. “Rain chances will be scattered each day, but it will not be raining most of the time. There will be increasing temperatures from the low- to mid-90s across Volusia and Flagler counties, even at the coast.”

Those temperatures are expected to send peak heat index readings as high as 105-108. Kelly said.

High pressure will send temperatures soaring

Unusually strong high pressure will build over Florida from midweek, through Independence Day, and into the weekend, resulting in the somewhat hotter temperatures, according to the NWS.

Combined with above-normal nighttime temperatures and high humidity, the Heat Risk is expected to jump into the "major" category for portions of the area. That means the potential for heat-related health impacts, such as heat exhaustion, will increase.

Residents and visitors planning to be outdoors will need to take extra precautions to beat the heat, the NWS advisory states.

More: Celebrate July 4th: City-by-city listings of firework displays in Volusia and Flagler

There remains a daily chance for scattered showers and storms through this week. Occasional to frequent lightning, brief gusty winds and torrential rainfall will accompany the strongest storms.

In addition, a moderate risk of dangerous rip currents will persist into the weekend.

“We’re not looking at a high risk (of rip currents) at this point, but certainly a moderate risk,” Kelly said. “There will be a lot of people in the water and there will be rip currents present with a moderate chance of strong rip currents.”

Hurricane Beryl, the Category 4 storm churning across the Caribbean, will have no impact on weather conditions in Volusia and Flagler, Kelly said.

Daytona Beach weather radar

Daytona Beach extended forecast

Tuesday: A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89 and a nighttime low around 79. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday: A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89 and nighttime low around 78. Light variable wind becoming east at 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

Independence Day: A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89 and nighttime low around 78. A 30% chance of nighttime showers before 8 p.m.

Friday: A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90 and nighttime low around 78.

Saturday: A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92 and a nighttime low around 78. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the morning.

Sunday: A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east-southeast in the afternoon.

Palm Coast extended forecast

Tuesday: A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89 and a nighttime low around 77. Heat index values as high as 102.

Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms are likely, with a 60% chance of rain mainly after 2 p.m. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 86 and a nighttime low around 79.

Independence Day: A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86 and a nighttime low around 79. Mostly clear skies at night.

Friday: A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 87 and a nighttime low around 79.

Saturday: A 50% chance of daytime showers and thunderstorms, dropping to 20% at night. Sunny, with a high near 89 and a nighttime low around 79.

Sunday: A 60% chance of precipitation, with showers and thunderstorms likely. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 89.